Quote of the Week: “Philosophers say a great deal about what is absolutely necessary for science, and it is always, so far as one can see, rather naive, and probably wrong.” – Richard Feynman
Number of the Week: 2%
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Oversimplified: Last week, TWTW presented a new paper from MIT Professor emeritus in Atmospheric Physics Richard Lindzen titled: “An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions.” The discussion was limited to what was presented in the No Tricks Zone blog. Further, TWTW did not draw a clear distinction between what the blog presented and what Lindzen actually wrote.
Starting with the UN and continuing through virtually all industrialized countries in the West, there is enormous political pressure to replace reliable fossil fuels with unreliable wind and solar power, particularly for electricity generation. Yet, no successful demonstration project exists showing this can be done at reasonable costs. Even the largest “battery” in the world, the Bath County Pumped [Hydro] Storage Station in Virginia, must be recharged, refilled, nightly by electricity from reliable nuclear and coal-fired power plants.
The Lindzen paper strongly contests the findings of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and its followers, who claim that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels are causing dangerous global warming. If there is no imminent danger of significant greenhouse gas warming, there is no need to go through the enormous costs of replacing fossil fuels with a system that has not been proved to work for modern civilization.
The over 40 years of atmospheric temperature trends compiled by the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) clearly show that the atmosphere is not warming dangerously, and that the models relied upon by the IPCC and its followers are wrong. The Lindzen paper goes into why the models are wrong. As presented last week, Lindzen wrote:
“The ‘consensus’ assessment of this system is today the following:
“In this complex multifactor system, the climate (which, itself, consists in many variables – especially the temperature difference between the equator and the poles) is described by just one variable, the global averaged temperature change, and is controlled by the 1—2% perturbation in the energy budget due to a single variable (any single variable) among many variables of comparable importance. We go further and designate CO2 as the sole control. Although we are not sure of the budget for this variable, we know precisely what policies to implement in order to control it.
“How did such a naïve seeming picture come to be accepted, not just by the proponents of the issue, but also by most skeptics?” To which the paper adds: “After all, we spend much of our effort arguing about global temperature records, climate sensitivity, etc. In brief, we are guided by this line of thought.”
It is clear that Lindzen thinks that the line of thinking is off and needs to be corrected. He reviews what is generally accepted about the climate system stating: [edited from the original with direct quotations in italics]
- The core of the system consists in two turbulent fluids (the atmosphere and oceans) interacting with each other.
- The two fluids are on a rotating planet that is differentially heated by the sun. Solar rays directly hit the equator and skim the earth at the poles resulting in uneven heating, which drives the circulation of the atmosphere. The result is heat transport from the equator towards the poles (meridional).
- The earth’s climate system is never in equilibrium.
- In addition to the oceans, the atmosphere is interacting with a hugely irregular land surface distorting the airflow, causing planetary scale waves, which are generally not accurately described in climate models.
- A vital component of the atmosphere is water in its liquid, solid, and vapor phases, and the changes in phases have vast energetic ramifications. Each phase affects incoming and outgoing radiation differently. Substantial heat is released when water vapor condenses, driving thunder clouds. Further, clouds consist of water in the form of fine droplets and ice crystals. Normally, these are suspended by rising air currents, but when these grow large enough, they fall as rain and snow. The energies involved in phase changes are important, as well as the fact that both water vapor and clouds strongly affect radiation.
“The two most important greenhouse substances by far are water vapor and clouds. Clouds are also important reflectors of sunlight. These matters are discussed in detail in the IPCC WG1 reports, each of which openly acknowledge clouds as major sources of uncertainty in climate modeling.”
- “The energy budget of this system involves the absorption and reemission of about 240 W/m2. Doubling CO2 involves a perturbation a bit less than 2% to this budget (4 W/m2) So do changes in clouds and other features, and such changes are common. The earth receives about 340 W/m2 from the sun, but about 100 W/m2 is simply reflected back to space by both the earth’s surface and, more importantly, by clouds. This would leave about 240 W/m2 that the earth would have to emit in order to establish balance. The sun radiates in the visible portion of the radiation spectrum because its temperature is about 6000 K. If the Earth had no atmosphere at all (but for purposes of argument still was reflecting 100 W/m2), it would have to radiate at a temperature of about 255 K, and, at this temperature, the radiation is mostly in the infrared.”
The oceans and the atmosphere introduce a host of complications including evaporation creating water vapor which strongly absorbs and emits radiation in the infrared.
“The water vapor essentially blocks infrared radiation from leaving the surface, causing the surface and (via conduction) the air adjacent to the surface to heat, and convection sets in. The combination of the radiative and the convective processes results in decreasing temperature with height [lapse rate]. To make matters more complicated, the amount of water vapor that the air can hold decreases rapidly as the temperature decreases. Above some height there is so little water vapor remaining that radiation from this level can now escape to space. It is at this elevated level (around 5 km) that the temperature must be about 255 K in order to balance incoming radiation. However, because the temperature decreases with height, the surface of the Earth now has to actually be warmer than 255 K. It turns out that it has to be about 288 K (which is indeed the average temperature of the earth’s surface). The addition of other greenhouse gases (like CO2) increases further the emission level and causes an additional increase of the ground temperature. Doubling CO2 is estimated to be equivalent to a forcing of about 4W/m2 which is a little less than 2% of the net incoming 240 W/m2.
“The situation can actually be more complicated if upper-level cirrus clouds are present. They are very strong absorbers and emitters of infrared radiation and effectively block infrared radiation from below. Thus, when such clouds are present above about 5 km, their tops, rather than 5 km determine the emission level. This makes the ground temperature (i.e., the greenhouse effect) dependent on the cloud coverage.
“Many factors, including fluctuations of average cloud area and height, snow cover, ocean circulations, etc. commonly cause changes to the radiative budget comparable to that of doubling of CO2. For example, the net global mean cloud radiative effect is of the order of − 20 W/m2 (cooling effect). A 4 W/m2 forcing, from a doubling of CO2, therefore corresponds to only a 20% change in the net cloud effect.
- It is important to note that such a system will fluctuate with timescales ranging from seconds to millennia even in the absence of explicit forcing other than a steady sun. Much of the popular literature (on both sides of the climate debate) assumes that all changes must be driven by some external factor.
Even if the solar forcing were constant, the climate would vary. With the massive size of the oceans, such variations can involve timescales of millennia. Lindzen mentions the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which has a relatively short cycle, but for which we do not have a sufficiently long instrumental record to understand. The earth has other natural changes or oscillations that are too long to fully describe. The solar sunspot cycle lasts about 11 years, imperfectly.
“Restricting ourselves to matters that are totally uncontroversial does mean that the above description is not entirely complete, but it does show the heterogeneity, the numerous degrees of freedom, and the numerous sources of variability of the climate system.”
After this review of the complexity of the climate system, Lindzen follows with the simplistic “consensus” assessment stated above. The presentation of other key parts of Lindzen’s paper will be continued in the next TWTW. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Exploding Models: As the UAH graphs and papers clearly show, the global climate models upon which the IPCC depends overestimate the warming trend of the atmosphere by 2.5 to 3 times. Since the greenhouse effect occurs in the atmosphere, it follows that the models overestimate the greenhouse effect by more than 2.5 to 3 times. The modelers use surface temperatures arguing that is where people live. But surface temperatures are far from comprehensive, even in the 21st century, and were certainly far less comprehensive in the 19th century, which the IPCC uses as a start time. Further, surface temperature trends are influenced by many more variables than atmospheric temperature trends.
Writing in his blog, Roy Spencer notes that the 13 models (CMIP6), that are currently publicly available, and will be used by the IPCC in its upcoming report overestimate observed surface temperature trends since 1979 by over 50%. This appears to be part of an effort by the IPCC and its followers to frighten the public about CO2 even further.
See the links under Challenging the Orthodoxy for a description of Spencer’s procedure and the tricks, techniques, used by modelers that annoy Spencer the most.
Warming Clouds? As Richard Lindzen discusses in his paper, above, even the IPCC acknowledges that clouds are the major sources of uncertainty in climate modeling. This shows that the certainty expressed in the IPCC’s work is way overstated. According to a paper in AAAS, Science Advances, 39 of the new models (CMIP6) to be used in the upcoming IPCC reports show that the globe is even more sensitive to CO2 than the IPCC claimed in previous reports. According to an article discussing the paper in Phys.org:
“‘Many research groups have already published papers analyzing possible reasons why the climate sensitivity of their models changed when they were updated,’ said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of the new study. ‘Our goal was to look for any themes that were emerging, especially with the high-sensitivity models. The thing that came up again and again is that cloud feedbacks in general, and the interaction between clouds and tiny particles called aerosols in particular, seem to be contributing to higher sensitivity.’”
The abstract of the Science Advances paper with Meehl as the lead author states:
“ECS, [Equilibrium Climate Senstivity] a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s.”
“TCR, [Transient Climate Sensitivity is], the surface temperature warming around the time of CO2 doubling in a 1% per year CO2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.”
As Lindzen discusses, above, the earth’s climate system is never in equilibrium and we know that it has been changing in cycles lasting thousands of years. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity has no clear meaning.
According to the article in Phys.org:
“The research was funded in part by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor. Other supporters include the U.S. Department of Energy, the Helmholtz Society, and Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (Germany’s climate computing center).”
As stated in the August 31, 2019 TWTW, NCAR’s new model was running hot, with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 5.3⁰K (⁰C) for a doubling of CO2. Apparently, modelers at NCAR have decided to blame the increase on their previous failure to understand clouds. [When in doubt, increase the doubt?] Of course, this action is directly contrary to the 40-year estimated atmospheric temperature trends verified by direct measurements by instruments on weather balloons. Ignore the physical evidence. Keep with the pack: groupthink!
TWTW has been unable to access the current budget of NCAR. Its FY 2019 budget request was $94,700,000 with $30,030,000 for its computer operations including the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center. Given the amount of money involved, it is rather remarkable that the National Center for Atmospheric Research cannot focus on atmospheric temperature trends. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Model Issues, and https://www.nsf.gov/about/budget/fy2019/pdf/40q_fy2019.pdf
A Contrarian: Michael Shellenberger has written a book challenging many of the accepted ideas of environmentalists presenting informed, contrarian views: “Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All.” In this, he follows Bjorn Lomborg who wrote “The Skeptical Environmentalist” and Indur Goklany who wrote “The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner World.” Both Lomborg and Goklany were severely criticized by the environmental establishment which could not refute the general evidence, but only nit-pick a few details and resort to personal attacks.
The participation of a number of organizations with Science in their names in these attacks was revealing. Apparently, these organizations do not care for physical evidence, but rather to maintain the status quo, from which they greatly benefit. It remains to be seen what the reaction to Schellenberger’s book will be.
What is remarkable about Shellenberger’s book is that for a very long time he was a most devout advocate of the environmentalist position – a leader in the field. This reversal by Shellenberger will surely be termed “heresy” by the climate establishment.
Bjorn Lomborg has just written a new book entitled “False Alarm” which TWTW has been asked to review. It expands on Lomborg’s previous position and says that all those horrible outcomes are not going to take place. Will he again be criticized by the environmental establishment for nonsensical reasons?
One review contained a number of praises that may be considered surprising, such as climate scientist Tom Wigley, former senior scientist National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT specializing in tropical cyclones. See Article # 1 and links under Questioning the Orthodoxy.
Wind Magic? According to the IEA in 2017, Denmark had a total of 5.521 MW (nameplate) of wind power installed.
“32% of Denmark’s energy consumption came from renewable sources: 40% from oil, 15% from natural gas, 9% from coal, 2% from nonrenewable waste, and 2% from imported electricity. Wind-generated electricity met 43.4% of the domestic electricity supply.”
These numbers are somewhat misleading because Denmark relies on pumped hydro storage in Norway and to a lesser extent in Sweden. Also, it maintains its traditional power plants. TWTW was unable to find solid references comparing capacity with actual production (generation).
According to Strom-Report by German data journalists, Denmark competes with Germany for the highest residential electricity prices in the EU: “The highest residential electricity prices are paid in Germany [30.88 cents (euro)] and Denmark [29.84] for many years in a row now.” The EU average is 20.54 cents /kWh.
According to reports, Denmark’s political parties have struck a deal to increase carbon taxes to create higher electricity prices. Further, “The Danish Council on Climate Change, which consults on and evaluates the country’s climate policies, has suggested that the current carbon tax of 177 Danish kroner ($26.6 dollars or 23.7 euros) per tonne should be increased to 1,500 kroner.” According to the Strom-Report, taxes and levies make up 68% of Denmark’s residential electricity costs.
Who knows if the public will accept an increase in carbon taxes of 8.5 times current taxes? If the public does, it is certainly under a magic spell. See links under Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes, https://community.ieawind.org/about/member-activities/denmark and https://strom-report.de/electricity-prices-europe/#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20the%20average%20residential,cents%20%7C%20kWh%2010%20years%20ago.
Vote for Aprils Fools Award: The voting for the SEPP’s April Fools Award will be continued until July 31. Due to changes in schedules, there are no conferences held before then to announce the results. So, get you votes in now.
Number of the Week: 2%. As Lindzen states above, a doubling of CO2 will cause of change in the earth’s estimated energy budget of less than 2%. This is hardly cause for extreme concern, particularly since the unknowns, such as clouds, are up to 10 times larger.
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
Motions in the Sun reveal inner workings of sunspot cycle
By Staff Writers, Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany (SPX), Jun 26, 2020
Link to paper: Meridional flow in the Sun’s convection zone is a single cell in each hemisphere
By Laurent Gizon et al. Science, June 26, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP Dennis Avery
Dennis Avery: A Life Well-Lived in Pursuit of the Betterment of Humankind
By H. Sterling Burnett, S.T. Karnick, Joseph Bast, Paul Driessen, The Heartland Institute, June 25, 2020
Challenging the Orthodoxy
An oversimplified picture of the climate behavior based on a single process can lead to distorted conclusions
By Richard S. Lindzen, The European Physical Journal Plus, June 3, 2020
CMIP6 Climate Models Producing 50% More Surface Warming than Observations since 1979
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, June 25, 2020Heartland Climate Conference Returns!
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 25, 2020New Climate Assessment Suggests No Dangerous Warming
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, June 25, 2020Link to report: “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region,”
By Staff, The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India, 2020
[SEPP Comment: India is not experiencing dangerous warming?]
Ross McKitrick: The flaw in relying on worst-case-scenario climate model
Junk Science Week: The purpose of global climate policy is to get us from the dangerous upper end of the forecast range down to the safe bottom end — we are already there
By Ross McKitrick, Financial Post, June 23, 2020If your only tool is a CO2 molecule…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020“As Lindzen notes, the large number of scientists attracted to the climate field after the 1980s came in pursuit of the ample grant money available to those who blamed humans for creating a crisis. That change in funding has changed the science, but not for the better.”
Don’t Waste the COVID-19 Crisis
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, June 23, 2020“1. These proposals to cut GHG emissions are really job killers that hurt people.
2. They reduce economic growth by wasting money on, what are inherently, uneconomic investments.
3. And, with unreliable renewables, they increase the risk of dangerous blackouts.”
Defending the Orthodoxy
Increased warming in latest generation of climate models likely caused by clouds
News Release, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Via Phys.org, June 24, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
By Gerald A. Meehl, et al, AAAS Science Advances, June 24, 2020
An Infrastructure Package Could Help America’s Economy — and the Environment
By Todd BenDor, Real Clear Energy, June 23, 2020
“The answer lies in the little-known ‘ecological restoration’ industry. Many Americans have never heard of this sector, but it’s massive. My colleagues and I conducted research that found it pumps $25 billion into the economy each year and directly employs more than 126,000 people — more than the logging, steel, or coal industries.”
[SEPP Comment: Are those paying agree or be forced by government?]
Reserve Banks: 25% GDP Loss by 2100 if We Don’t Reduce CO2 Emissions
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 25, 2020Questioning the Orthodoxy
Environmentalism as Religion: A Leading Environmentalist Bemoans the Fact
Posted by Glenn T. Stanton, The Daily Citizen, June 23, 2020Praise for Apocalypse Never
By Staff, Environmental Progress, Accessed June 24, 2020
Warming is not the only threat
Our response to Covid-19 has shown us that national security depends on more than tanks, planes and climate preparedness
By Michael J. Kelly, The Critic, UK, July/August 2020 [H/t GWPF]
“A futile attempt to achieve net-zero carbon emissions now looks like madness”
And what of history?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020Apocalyptic science: How the West is destroying itself
Junk Science Week: New academic doctrines dismiss science — real science — in favour of political agendas, in which theory trumps facts
By Bruce Pardy, Financial Post, June 26, 2020 [H/t GWPF]BASTASCH: It’s Now Clearer Than Ever Before, Science Bends Itself To Fit Left-Wing Politics
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, June 20, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
Climate Explainer: “If humans had not contributed to greenhouses gases in any way at all, what would the global temperature be today…”
By David Middleton, WUWT, June 25, 2020After Paris!
India eyes private investment to open 41 new coal mines
By Chloé Farand, Climate Home News, June 19, 2020“Prime Minister Modi says private coal mining will boost India’s energy security, despite expert warnings of stranded assets and indigenous rights violations”
Covid-19 Claims Another UN Climate Conference
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 23, 2020Problems in the Orthodoxy
But you have my sympathies
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020“’Modern AI models consume a massive amount of energy, and these energy requirements are growing at a breathtaking rate. In the deep learning era, the computational resources needed to produce a best-in-class AI model has on average doubled every 3.4 months; this translates to a 300,000x increase between 2012 and 2018. GPT-3 is just the latest embodiment of this exponential trajectory.’”
Extinction Rebellion spokeswoman Zion Lights quits green movement to become lobbyist for nuclear power saying: ‘I changed my mind’
By Dan Sales, Daily Mail, June 25, 2020
Seeking a Common Ground
The Real Victim of Trump’s Sharpiegate: NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 22, 2020
“President Trump showed himself to be ill-informed on hurricane Dorian and the attempt to mark up an old forecast chart was comical. His pressure on NOAA through the Department of Commerce was inappropriate and unethical. But the attempt of some NOAA administrators, media, and others to attack NOAA acting administrator Neil Jacobs is both wrong and hurtful. It is an attempt to sully the reputation of an extraordinarily dedicated public servant and administrator, whose passion is to repair and improve U.S. weather prediction capabilities.” [Boldface in original]
Mass spectrometry and climate science. Part II
By Roland Hirsch, Climate Etc. June 25, 2020Science, Policy, and Evidence
CCC: UK risks ‘egg on face’ unless it accelerates climate plans
The UK government “must seize the opportunity” for a “green recovery”, says the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in its latest report.
By Multiple Authors, Carbon Brief, June 25, 2020Link to report: Reducing UK emissions: 2020 Progress Report to Parliament
By Staff, Committee on Climate Change (CCC), June 25, 2020UK Government: “we must seize the opportunity to make the COVID-19 recovery a defining moment in tackling the climate crisis”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 25, 2020Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Transgenerational Plasticity of Marine Bivalves to Ocean Acidification
Zhao, L., Shirai, K., Tanaka, K., Milano, S., Higuchi, T., Murakami-Sugihara, N., Walliser, E.O., Yang, F., Deng, Y. and Schöne, B.R. 2020. A review of transgenerational effects of ocean acidification on marine bivalves and their implications for sclerochronology. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 235: 106620. June 26, 2020
“Writing as background for their study, Zhao et al. (2020) say that transgenerational plasticity (TGP) is defined as phenotypic changes in offspring in response to environmental stressors experienced by their parental generation.’”
“Clearly, more studies need to examine the likelihood of TGP in marine species in response to ocean acidification and no assessment of the impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 on marine life will be valid without it.”
Interactive Effects of CO2 and Temperature on Cassava
Forbes, S.J., Cernusak, L.A., Northfield, T.D., Gleadow, R.M., Lambert, S. and Cheesman, A.W. 2020. Elevated temperature and carbon dioxide alter resource allocation to growth, storage and defense in cassava (Manihot esculenta). Environmental and Experimental Botany 173: 103997. June 24, 2020
“Thus, considering all of the above, it is abundantly clear that rising atmospheric CO2 and temperature will benefit the production of cassava and help enhance food security in developing regions. Furthermore, this study puts to rest alarmist concerns that cassava plants will contain greater (and potentially deadly) concentrations of cyanide in the future because of rising atmospheric CO2.”
The Response of Two Maize Varieties to CO2 Enrichment
Maurya, V.K., Gupta, S.K., Sharma, M., Majumder, B., Deeba, F., Pandey, N. and Pandey, V. 2020. Proteomic changes may lead to yield alteration in maize under carbon dioxide enriched condition. 3 Biotech 10: 203. June 22, 2020
Structural errors in global climate models
By Gerald Browning, WUWT, June 20, 2020“At a minimum, climate modelers must make the following assumptions:
“3. The forcing (parameterizations) accurately approximate the corresponding processes in the atmosphere and there is no accumulation of error over hundreds of years of simulation.”
Much improved climate predictions from statistical mechanics
News Release, by University of Copenhagen, June 24, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Beyond Forcing Scenarios: Predicting Climate Change through Response Operators in a Coupled General Circulation Model
By Lembo, Lucarini, & Ragone, Nature, Scientific Reports, May 26, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The abstract begins: “Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings.” In the UN IPCC interpretations, natural forcings are largely ignored.]
Coronavirus: Models And Evidence
By Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, June 5, 2020
Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto
Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.
By Andrea Saitelli, et al. Nature, June 24, 2020 [H/t David Wojick]
“This is important because, when used appropriately, models serve society extremely well: perhaps the best known are those used in weather forecasting. These models have been honed by testing millions of forecasts against reality.”
[SEPP Comment: Climate models are not well tested as weather models.]
New opportunities for ocean and climate modelling
News Release, Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres, June 23, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: The Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure version 1 (FOCI1): mean state and variability
By Katja Matthes, et al. Geoscientific Model Development, June 3, 2020
Measurement Issues — Surface
Systemic Data Tampering: NASA GISS Alters US Southeast Data, Changes Cooling To Warming
By Kirye and P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 23, 2020Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Greenhouse effect: “How a cold atmosphere can warm the Earth’s surface”
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 22, 2020Changing Weather
India Confirms No Increase in Tropical Cyclones Due to Climate Change
By Vijay Jayaraj, WUWT, June 22, 2020Satellites have drastically changed how we forecast hurricanes
By Jenny Marder for GSFC News, Greenbelt MD (SPX) Jun 23, 2020
1919 or 2019? Brandon Manitoba Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020
Noctilucent Clouds over London
By Tony Phillips, Space Weather, June 24, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
No Changes Behind The Changes: New Findings Show Europe Climate Driven By Westerly Winds For 14.5 Million Years!
From the Atlantic to the Alps: westerly winds have determined the climate in Central Europe for 14.5 million years
By Sabine Wendler, Senckenberg Research Institute, (Translated/edited from the German by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, June 21, 2020
Researchers reveal changes in water of Canadian arctic
News Release, University of Montana, June 24, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Sea-ice loss amplifies summertime decadal CO2 increase in the western Arctic Ocean
By Zhangxian Ouyang, et al. Nature Climate Change, June 15, 2020
Research sheds new light on the role of sea ice in controlling atmospheric carbon levels
News Release, University of Exeter, Phys.org, June 22, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Southern Ocean carbon sink enhanced by sea-ice feedbacks at the Antarctic Cold Reversal
By C.J. Fogwill, et al., Nature Geoscience, June 22, 2020
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Temperatures Hit Record High in Russia Amid Heat Wave
By Staff, The Moscow Times, June 22, 2020 [H/t WUWT
“The 38 degrees Celsius recorded by the Pogoda i Klimat weather portal in Verkhoyansk on June 20, if accurate, may have set a new record for anywhere in the Arctic Circle, meteorologists say.
“The current record high temperature north of the Arctic Circle of 37.8 C was set in Fort Yukon, Alaska, in June 1915.
“Verkhoyansk holds the Guinness World Record for the highest recorded temperature range of 105 C, fluctuating from minus 68 C to a high of 37 C. The previous temperature record for the isolated town of around 1,300 residents stood at 37.3 C in July 1988.”
Climate Change? Temperature Hits 100 Degrees Above Arctic Circle, Just Like 100 Years Ago
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 23, 2020Scientists Panic, Because Arctic Is 0.4F Warmer Than In 1915!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 22, 2020
No doubt there’s a good reason
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020
Penguins pretty happy about melting sea ice
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 26, 2020
Link to paper: Foraging behavior links sea ice to breeding success in Antarctic penguins
By Yuuki Y. Watanabe, et al. Science, June 24, 2020
Link to second paper: The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Antarctica
By Sebastian Lüning, Mariusz Gałka & Fritz Vahrenholt
What’s up in space
By Staff, Spaceweather.com, June 26, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
“‘That’s why I was so surprised on June 23rd when my instruments picked up a magnetic anomaly,’ reports Stuart Green, who operates a research-grade magnetometer in his backyard in Preston UK. ‘For more than 30 minutes, the local magnetic field oscillated like a sine wave.’”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
World Soybean Production to Rise by 8%, Says Grains Council
By Chuck Abbott, Successful Farming, June 26, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
Link to report: Grain Market Report
By Staff, International Grains Council, June 25, 2020
By Peter Achinstein, Hopkins at Home, Johns Hopkins, Accessed June 26, 2020 [Perter Friedman]
“You must not cherry-pick your evidence to suit your needs. Dr. Peter Achinstein challenges this principle. Tune in to consider scientific cases, a legal case, and an everyday case in which disregarding evidence is perfectly proper and the right thing to do.”
[SEPP Comment: Scientists should think like lawyers? This view is compatible with Plessy v. Ferguson in the “separate but equal” ruling of 1896 that institutionalized segregation as not violating the 14th Amendment.]
Financial Conflicts & the Retracted COVID Research
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, June 22, 2020
JAMA fails to disclose study authors’ conflicts of interest; Passes off activist-written junk as ‘science’
By Steve Malloy, JunkSceince.com, Accessed June 18, 2020
Increase Taxes On Cars & Home Heating, Says Gummer
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 25, 2020
“This is a blatant breach of the BBC’s impartiality rules.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
I thank God I am not as others are
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020Siberia heat wave: why the Arctic is warming so much faster than the rest of the world
By Jonathan Bamber, The Conversation, Via Phys.org, June 25, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: Claiming that an event similar to one that occurred 100 years ago is an unprecedented trend? See links under Changing Cryosphere.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Alarmist Claims Of Increasing European Drought Are A Myth, New Scientific Findings Show
The myth of increasing European drought
By Frank Bosse (Translated, edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, June 26, 2020Environment Agency Accused Of Making False Claims About UK Weather
Press Release, GWPF, June 20, 2020Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Climate skeptics are terrorists now (the “terror” is talking about coal)
We can tell skeptics are winning by the scale of the panic
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 26, 2020
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Amazon announces naming rights to NHL Seattle arena, first zero-carbon arena in world
By Ashley Young, NBC Sports, June 25, 2020 [H/t Ken Schlichte]
[SEPP Comment: What is meant by a zero-carbon arena, fans are not allowed to breathe?]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate change crisis requires less growth-oriented global economy
By Brooks Hays, Washington DC (UPI), Jun 19, 2020
Link to paper: Scientists’ warning on affluence
By Thomas Wiedmann, Manfred Lenzen, Lorenz T. Keyßer & Julia K. Steinberger, Nature Communications, June 19, 2020
A Consensus Climate Solution Grown on the Farm
By Charles Hernick, Real Clear Energy, June 24, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The key issue is will it be truly voluntary, or mandatory for some farmers under a different name?]
3 Years and $3 Trillion Could Shift the Climate Change Narrative
By Eric Roston and Akshat Rathi, Bloomberg News, Via Financial Post, June 18, 2020[SEPP Comment: Based on the EIA’s annual Energy Outlook!]
Climate Assembly Wants “Green Recovery”–Surprise, Surprise!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 23, 2020“Interim report published by UK’s first citizens assembly for the climate crisis urges government to use forthcoming economic stimulus to move closer to net zero goal, while highlighting that public is prepared to make emissions-slashing lifestyle changes.”
Minerals Council of Australia Fails to Appease Climate Activists
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 22, 2020Questioning European Green
Is the Green Deal compatible with the Lisbon Treaty and the Energy Charter?
By Samuel Furfari, European Scientist, June 24, 2020‘Progress towards the EU’s climate and energy targets has stalled’
The climate-related economic losses in 2017 amounted to €12.1 billion, according to the latest Eurostat report
By Dimitris Mavrokefalidis, Energy Live News, June 23, 2020“Although there has been an 18.9% increase in renewable energy consumption since 2013, the report shows the greenhouse intensity of the overall energy use has risen.”
Swallowing the Green manifesto leaves a nasty taste in Ireland
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 21, 2020Disturbed sleep a growing problem because of warmth of energy-efficient new homes
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 20, 2020[SEPP Comment: Air-conditioning now needed?]
Average CO2 emissions from new cars and new vans increased again in 2019
By Staff, European Environment Agency, June 26, 2020
Questioning Green Elsewhere
The Green Civil War
By Joel Kotkin, Real Clear Energy, June 19, 2020
In the pandemic, investors fled from “Green Energy”. Desperate industry predicts 40 deaths a month in wake
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 24, 2020
Link to press release: The Covid-19 crisis is causing the biggest fall in global energy investment in history
By Staff, IEA, May 27, 2020
NJ Ayuk: African Lives Matter Too, Energy Policy Decisions Should Consider Their Needs
By AJ Ayuk, Africa Oil & Power, June 22, 2020 [H/t GWP]
The IEA’s Sustainable Recovery Plan Is Not Sustainable
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, June 21, 2020 [H/t WUWT]
A Conversation with SEC Chairman Jay Clayton: Long-Term Investing, Sustainability and the Role of Disclosures
By Mayer Brown, Lexology, June 23, 2020
“While environmental, social and governance (ESG) matters are grouped by some into a single category, Chairman Clayton reiterated his view ‘E,’ ‘S’ and ‘G’ matters are different and lumping them together into one score diminishes their usefulness.”
Greens promote child slave labor and ecological destruction
Why don’t African black lives and ecological values matter? or impacts in and beyond Virginia?
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, June 22, 2020Green Jobs
Claim: 11,000 Renewable Energy Jobs at Risk in Australia
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 26, 2020[SEPP Comment: Does sustainable actually mean subsidies needed?]
EU recovery fund leaves €1.6 trillion investment gap towards climate targets, experts say
By Florence Schulz, EURACTIV.de, June 22, 2020Not so dumb after all
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, June 24, 2020“Alarmists have been telling us vehemently that governments must step in and rig financial markets because bankers and other investors are too dumb to realize the seas are rising in Gaia’s wrath to wash away the bourgeoisie along with alarmist celebrities who keep buying seaside mansions.”
The Political Games Continue
Democrats detail their $1.5T green infrastructure plan
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, June 22, 2020
“’This is the largest tax investment in combating climate change Congress has ever made,’ House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said when the bill was first announced.”
Labor in Australia finally gets a message from the voters and “wants to end climate wars”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, June 25, 2020
Minnesota sues Exxon, others over climate change
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 24, 2020
“’By 1965, Defendants and their predecessors-in-interest were aware that the scientific community had found that fossil-fuel products, if used profligately, would cause global warming by the end of the century, and that such global warming would have wide-ranging and costly consequences,’ the suit said. [Boldface added]
“It also accused them of funding ‘fraudulent scientific research’ in an attempt to create uncertainty.”
[SEPP Comment: What consequences at the end of the 20th century?]
DC sues oil companies over climate change
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 25, 2020
Judges Acknowledge how Climate Litigation Proponents Try to Undermine Rule of Law
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, June 22, 2020Bayer agrees to $10 billion settlement in Roundup suits
By Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, June 24, 2020
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Denmark readies increased carbon tax to promote energy transition
By Staff Writers, Copenhagen (AFP,) June 22, 2020
World to Canada: You’re raising your carbon tax during a global pandemic?
Opinion: With carbon tax burdens declining around the globe, walking back the recent carbon tax hike should be a no-brainer for our federal government
By Aaron Wudrick and Franco Terrazzano, Financial Post, [Canada] May19, 2020Subsidies and Mandates Forever
NSW Government Offers Subsidised Infrastructure for Renewable Energy, Overwhelming Response
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 22, 2020Energy Issues – Non-US
BP Energy Review For 2019
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 24, 2020
Link to report: Statistical Review of World Energy, 2019
By Staff, BP, 2019
“Reading between the lines, the price rises [for cobalt and lithium] in the last two years have been driven by speculation, on the back of a projected rapid rise in demand. What is evident is that demand has actually remained flat, suggesting that a battery revolution is not just around the corner.”
Energy Issues — US
‘Desperate’ To Get Natural Gas Out Of Appalachia, Pipeline Builders Face Long Battle Even After Supreme Court Victory
By Scott Carpenter, Forbes, June 18, 2020
[SEPP Comment: Virginia is not New York with the governor blocking pipelines – yet!]
Get Ready for an American Energy Comeback
By Kevin Mooney, Real Clear Energy, June 25, 2020
We still need coal to ensure power grid reliability
By Bernard Weinstein, The Hill, June 18, 2020
Oahu’s Energy: Irony, Hypocrisy … or Both?
By David Shormann, Cornwall Alliance, June 19, 2020Washington’s Control of Energy
Trump administration wants to open up 82 percent of Alaska [petroleum] reserve for drilling
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, June 25, 2020
Nuclear Energy and Fears
EU ministers exclude nuclear, fossil gas from green transition fund
By Staff, EURACTIV.com, June 26, 2020Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Why the World’s Most Advanced Solar Plants Are Failing
By Caroline Delbert, Popular Mechanics, June 23, 2020 [H/t Bernie Kepshire
[SEPP Comment: Discussing some of the problems of concentrated solar power. In addition, tracking the sun with great precision with a several ton-structure is a significant engineering problem, not appearing in design calculations.]
Solar maintenance to ‘cost $9.4bn by 2025’
Wood Mackenzie analysis predicts 4.2GW of PV assets will run into premature failures in 2020
By Staff, ReNews, June 22, 2020 [H/t GWPF]
How Do They Measure Energy From Wind Power?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 26, 2020[SEPP Comment: Reviewing how BP “Statistical Review of Word Energy” measures energy from wind, solar and nuclear power. EIA is guilty as well.]
New Paper: Renewables Are Destabilising UK Electricity Grid
By Staff, GWPF, June 25, 2020Link to paper: An analysis of frequency events in Great Britain
By Samuel Homan & Solomon Brown, Energy Reports, May 5, 2020
From the abstract: “…One measure of system stability is the volatility of the grid frequency. In this paper, an analysis is performed using one second resolution frequency data from Great Britain. We demonstrate that the number of frequency events has increased dramatically in the last couple of years, which coincides with the rapid increase in renewable penetration (wind and solar)….”
[SEPP Comment: See links immediately below.]
New system uses wind turbines to defend the national grid from power cuts
By Staff Writers, Birmingham UK (SPX), Jun 21, 2020
Link to paper: Fast Frequency Support From Wind Turbine Systems by Arresting Frequency Nadir Close to Settling Frequency
By Xianxian Zhao ; Ying Xue and Xiao-Ping Zhang, IEEE, May 15, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The article’s headline is incorrect. The issue is frequency variation as more erratic generation systems are used. This may result in an increase or decrease in frequency, not a power cut. It is not entirely understood how a grid system will respond to different wind penetration levels. See “Wind Generation Participation in Power System Frequency Response.” https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67287.pdf. The dispatchers in the electrical system use variations in frequency as the earliest indicators that the power demand is rising or falling relative to power production. For example, a higher load (or a drop in wind power) causes generators to slow down a whit, hence to change the frequency.]
‘Green’ Carnage Study: In 2019 US Wind Turbines Killed 3.7 Million Bats – And This Is A Gross Underestimate
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, June 25, 2020Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Industry alliance rebels against ‘all-renewable’ hydrogen
By Frédéric Simon, EURACTIV.com, June 25, 2020Swansea Bay–The Basic Facts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 26, 2020[SEPP Comment: A tidal lagoon harnessing free energy can be extremely expensive.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
New German Study: E-Car Climate Benefits Based On “Great Miscalculation”…”Actually Exacerbate Global Warming”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, June 20, 2020Nevada adopting California’s tough car pollution rules, pushing back against Trump administration
By John Bowden, The Hill, June 23, 2020
Health, Energy, and Climate
Coronavirus, As An Air Pollutant
By Fred Lipfert, and Chuck Dinerstein, ACSH, June 11, 2020
Censorship for Climate Alarm: Dessler Joins Mann in Intellectual Cowardice
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, June 25, 2020Getting Expensive for Mann
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, June 23, 2020Link to June 22 decision: granting expenses
Link to Mann v. National Review Compelling Discovery May 5
Joanna Szurmak Interview: Extending the Julian Simon Worldview (Part II: Population Bombed!)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, June 24, 2020
“But we had been noticing an upsurge in calls to impose controls on world population in the name of environmental health and climate justice.”
Other Scientific News
The Radar Shows Heavy Rain Offshore Without Clouds: How Can That Be?
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, June 26, 2020
Other News that May Be of Interest
Winds blow massive Saharan dust cloud into US airspace
By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer, June 27, 2020 [H/t Gordon Fulks]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Italian team covers glacier with giant white sheets to slow melting
Every summer, the Presena glacier in northern Italy is protected from the sun with huge reflective tarps
By Staff, AFP, June 20, 2020
[SEPP Comment: The 19th century prayers to stop the glaciers must have worked too well!]
NASA is Funding a Search for Alien Civilisations Powered by Solar Cells
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, June 22, 2020Taking a Page from Tesla’s Notebook, Sunrun Builds a “Virtual” Solar Power Plant in California
Project’s likely size is about 1.5 megawatts
By Rich Smith, The Motley Fool, June 16, 2020
What Happened To Greenland’s Tipping Point?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, June 22, 2020Nuclear Power Will Replace Oil By 2030
Originally published in May 1967
By Staff, Scientific American, June 22, 2020
“…These facts make plain how heavily the ‘fission age’ (perhaps to be followed someday by a ‘fusion age’) can depend on success in developing power plants with breeder reactors that will make the most of the available resources.”
The largest electric plane ever to fly
By Chris Baraniuk, BBC, June 17, 2020
1. ‘Apocalypse Never’ Review: False Gods for Lost Souls
Environmentalism offers emotional relief and spiritual satisfaction, giving its adherents a sense of purpose and transcendence.
By John Tierney, WSJ, June 21, 2020
TWTW Summary: The reviewer begins:
“There is a recurring puzzle in the history of the environmental movement: Why do green activists keep promoting policies that are harmful not only to humans but also to the environment? Michael Shellenberger is determined to solve this problem, and he is singularly well-qualified.
“He understands activists because he has been one himself since high school, when he raised money for the Rainforest Action Network. Early in his adult career, he campaigned to protect redwood trees, promote renewable energy, stop global warming, and improve the lives of farmers and factory workers in the Third World. But the more he traveled, the more he questioned what Westerners’ activism was accomplishing for people or for nature.
“He became a different kind of activist by helping start a movement called ecomodernism, the subject of ‘Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All.’ He still wants to help the poor and preserve ecosystems, but through industrialization instead of ‘sustainable development.’ He’s still worried about climate change, but he doesn’t consider it the most important problem today, much less a threat to humanity’s survival—and he sees that greens’ favorite solutions are making the problem worse.
“He chronicles environmental progress around the world and crisply debunks myth after gloomy myth. No, we are not in the midst of the ‘sixth mass extinction,’ because only 0.001% of the planet’s species go extinct annually. No, whales were not saved by Greenpeace but rather by the capitalist entrepreneurs who discovered cheaper substitutes for whale oil (first petroleum, then vegetable oils) that decimated the whaling industry long before activists got involved. No, plastics don’t linger for thousands of years in the ocean; they’re broken down by sunlight and other forces. No, climate change has not caused an increase in the frequency or intensity of floods, droughts, hurricanes and tornadoes.
“In 2002, Mr. Shellenberger proposed the New Apollo Project, a precursor to the Green New Deal. Many of its ideas for promoting renewable energy were adopted by the Obama administration and received more than $150 billion in federal funds, but Mr. Shellenberger was disillusioned with the results. A disproportionate share of the money, as he documents, went to companies that enriched donors to the Obama campaign but failed to yield practical technologies.
“He now considers most forms of renewable energy to be impractical for large-scale use. Windmills and solar power are too expensive and unreliable as a primary source of power for people in poor countries, and they cause too much environmental damage because they require vast areas of land and harm flora and fauna. He faults Western activists and governments for trying to force these technologies on Third World countries and prevent them from building hydroelectric and fossil-fuel power plants.
“‘Rich nations,’ he writes, ‘should do everything they can to help poor nations industrialize.’ Instead ‘many of them are doing something closer to the opposite: seeking to make poverty sustainable rather than to make poverty history.’”
After discussing some of the benefits and disadvantages of industrialization the reviewer concludes:
“‘The trouble with the new environmental religion is that it has become increasingly apocalyptic, destructive, and self-defeating,’ he writes. ‘It leads its adherents to demonize their opponents, often hypocritically. It drives them to seek to restrict power and prosperity at home and abroad. And it spreads anxiety and depression without meeting the deeper psychological, existential, and spiritual needs its ostensibly secular devotees seek.’
“Mr. Shellenberger wants to woo them to an alternative faith that he calls environmental humanism, which is committed to the ‘transcendent moral purpose of universal human flourishing and environmental progress.’ I’m not sure that’s enough to attract converts, but it makes for a much truer picture of the world—and a much cheerier read.”