Scientific American: “Nuclear Power Will Replace Oil By 2030”

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Guest “just a bit outside” by David Middleton

When I saw this headline on RealClearEnergy, I thought it might be an article by Ted Nordhaus or Michael Schellenberger… But it went in a whole other direction…

Nuclear Power Will Replace Oil By 2030
Originally published in May 1967

June 22, 2020

“By the year 2030 the electric power requirement will be 10 times the present capacity. Because of the expected decline in fossil-fuel resources, and in the absence of any other large source of energy at reasonable cost, fission power would be counted on to supply about 85 percent of this need.

[…]

Scientific American, May 1967

More gems from Scientific American’s first 175 years can be found on our anniversary archive page.

Scientific American

Just a bit outside!

“Because of the expected decline in fossil-fuel resources, and in the absence of any other large source of energy at reasonable cost”… Half right. The only large source of energy at reasonable cost, apart from fossil-fuel resources is nuclear power. Regarding the “fossil-fuel resources”…

BP 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy

According to BP’s 2020 Statistical Review of World Energy the reserves to production ratios (R/P) for fossil fuels are:

Reserves ConsumptionR/P Ratio (yrs)
Oil (billion barrels)         1,734                 35                   50
Gas (trillion cubic feet)         7,019               141                   50
Coal (million tonnes)  1,069,636            8,099                 132

At our current consumption rate, the current reserves of oil, natural gas and coal would last 50, 50 and 132 years respectively. And reserves are just a fraction of the total resources.

“Because of the expected decline in fossil-fuel resources“… Mr. Data is laughing his @$$ off.

I think we can park the “expected decline in fossil-fuel resources” next to the flying car.

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