Visitor “the way to spot pretend information” by David Middleton
Reporting from Ice Station Dallas
Faux information isn’t essentially false or unfaithful.
U.S. oil output plunges as Arctic air freezes Permian shale fields
By JAVIER BLAS AND SHEELA TOBBEN on 2/16/2021
(Bloomberg) –U.S. oil manufacturing has plunged by greater than 2 million barrels a day because the coldest climate in 30 years brings havoc to key producing states that not often must cope with frigid Arctic blasts.
Oil merchants and firm executives, who requested to not be recognized, lifted their forecasts for provide losses from an earlier estimate on Monday of 1.5 million to 1.7 million barrels. They stated the losses have been significantly massive within the Permian Basin, probably the most prolific U.S. oil area, which straddles West Texas and southeast New Mexico. Output cuts have been additionally important within the Eagle Ford, in southern Texas, and the Anadarko basin in Oklahoma.
Two million barrels could be the equal of about 18% of total U.S. crude manufacturing, primarily based on the latest authorities information.
The Permian oil outage helped to push West Texas Intermediate, the crude benchmark within the U.S., above $60 a barrel on Monday for the primary time in additional than a yr. Since then, oil costs have fallen barely as a result of U.S. refineries have additionally closed because of the chilly, decreasing the quantity of crude wanted proper now. Power Elements Ltd., a marketing consultant, estimated that 3.1 million barrels a day of refining capability was down as of Monday.
Blas asserts that U.S. crude oil manufacturing is down by 18%. Whereas I’ve little doubt that Permian Basin oil & gasoline manufacturing has been impacted by the deep freeze, I haven’t been capable of finding any exhausting information but… However my Google searches hold linking again to variations of the Javier Blas article quoted above and different Bloomberg sources, which cite nothing that’s verifiable. In one other instance Jonathan Garber of Fox Enterprise cited Bloomberg’s Javier Blas and little else in an article asserting a 27% drop in U.S. manufacturing.
OIL Printed 21 hours in the past
Texas storms trigger epic drop in U.S. oil manufacturing
‘It actually is an ideal storm’
By Jonathan Garber FOX Enterprise
Frigid temperatures knocked out electrical energy throughout Texas and resulted in one of many largest U.S. oil manufacturing disruptions ever.
Shut-ins associated to the winter storm have eliminated about Three million barrels of day by day oil manufacturing, or 27% of U.S. output, a lot of which comes from the oil-rich Permian Basin situated in West Texas and Japanese New Mexico.
Occidental Petroleum Corp., the No. 2 oil producer within the Permian Basin, on Tuesday gave clients a power majeure discover, in line with Bloomberg, alerting them deliveries wouldn’t be made as a result of manufacturing snafus brought on by the frigid temperatures. An organization spokesperson didn’t reply to FOX Enterprise’ request for remark.
Different corporations that shut in amenities embrace oil majors Chevron Corp. and ExxonMobil Corp.
Chevron was pressured to droop manufacturing within the Permian Basin whereas ExxonMobil closed refineries within the Houston space. A lot of different wells and refineries throughout the area have been pressured to briefly shut-in.
So… Bloomberg says that Oxy delivered a power majeure discover to clients (Winter Storm Youthful Dryas is certainly a power majeure)… However Oxy was too busy to verify what Bloomberg advised Fox Enterprise. The hyperlink is to an article that explains what power majeure is. Chevron hasn’t introduced something about Permian Basin manufacturing and Exxon shutting in refineries within the Houston space is completely irrelevant to Permian Basin or U.S. crude manufacturing. Plenty of refineries have been pressured to close down by Winter Storm Youthful Dryas.
That is what Oxy needed to say:
Monday, February 15, 2021
Occidental Reschedules Fourth Quarter and Full-12 months 2020 Outcomes As a result of Impacts of Extreme Winter Storm
Monday, February 15, 2021 8:30 PM EST
HOUSTON – February 15, 2021 – Occidental (NYSE:OXY) introduced in the present day it has rescheduled its upcoming earnings launch and convention name as a result of impacts of the extreme winter storm. The corporate will announce its fourth quarter and full-year 2020 monetary outcomes after shut of market on Monday, February 22, 2021, and can maintain a convention name to debate outcomes on Tuesday, February 23, 2021, at 1 p.m. Japanese/ midday Central.
The convention name could also be accessed by calling 1-866-871-6512 (worldwide callers dial 1-412-317-5417) or by way of webcast at oxy.com/traders. Contributors could pre-register for the convention name at https://dpregister.com/sreg/10150650/df971440ac.
Fourth quarter and full-year 2020 monetary outcomes will probably be out there by means of the Investor Relations part of the corporate’s web site. A recording of the webcast will probably be posted on the web site after the decision is accomplished.
What’s the purpose in reporting guesses from “oil merchants and firm executives, who requested to not be recognized” and second-hand unconfirmed rumour? Whereas some corporations will most likely quickly announce impacts to their manufacturing, basin-wide and nationwide manufacturing information gained’t be out there for some time.
This bit from the Javier Blas article can also be “odd”…
The Permian oil outage helped to push West Texas Intermediate, the crude benchmark within the U.S., above $60 a barrel on Monday for the primary time in additional than a yr. Since then, oil costs have fallen barely as a result of U.S. refineries have additionally closed because of the chilly, decreasing the quantity of crude wanted proper now.
OK… So, the manufacturing outage pushed WTI up, then the belief that refineries have been offline pushed it again down. Nicely, then, this calamitous collapse in crude oil and refined product manufacturing ought to have pushed gasoline futures by means of the roof… Proper?
March gasoline futures did shoot up by about $0.10/gal in heavy buying and selling on 16 February, however the quantity has dropped to nearly nothing. The identical sample occurred with April futures.
Regardless of the alleged collapse in US oil manufacturing, gasoline costs are nonetheless on the identical trajectory they’ve been on for the reason that November coup d’état (I don’t give a rat’s @$$ for those who disagree with my use of this phrase).
This bit from the Fox Enterprise article is hilarious:
Sometimes, with a hurricane, producers and refiners are given per week’s discover and have loads of time to close of their operations. However this arctic storm took the world without warning, leading to a “disorganized shut-in of those amenities,” Schork stated.
The record-shattering chilly temperatures and winter storm have been precisely forecasted well-ahead of time. Nobody ought to have been stunned by the climate. The one actual shock was that just about all the wind generators froze, depriving the grid of about 25% of its ordinary electrical energy technology.
Whereas I’ve little question that Winter Storm Youthful Dryas has briefly impacted crude oil and pure gasoline manufacturing. Assertions that it’s down 18% or 27% are meaningless. We gained’t understand how a lot it’s down or for a way lengthy for days, if not weeks. The disruptions will probably be effectively behind us by the point they’ll truly be quantified. The storm and file chilly climate has clearly shut down refineries and made it practically inconceivable for tanker vehicles to ship gasoline in lots of locations.
This clearly charges a pretend information ranking:
“U.S. oil output plunges as Arctic air freezes Permian shale fields”
I don’t even know what a “Permian shale area” is… Wouldn’t it be like a area of Burgess Shale (a Cambrian shale area)?
We gained’t know if, or how a lot, U.S. oil manufacturing has been affected by Winter Storm Youthful Dryas for a number of days, or weeks. The simplest technique to spot pretend information is to search for dramatic headlines primarily based on nameless sources. In fact most mainstream media articles written concerning the oil & gasoline trade are pretend information.